"The best way to predict the future is to create it."

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Learn from both successes and failures to improve.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Dedicate time to learning new thinking methods.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Seek feedback to improve your judgment.</li></ul>

Continuous Learning

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Focus on the core of the problem, ignore irrelevant details.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Break down complex tasks into smaller steps.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Keep solutions simple and practical.</li></ul>

Simplifying Complexity

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Consider the future impact of your choices.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Map out how today’s decision affects tomorrow.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Weigh long-term risks and rewards before acting.</li></ul>

Long-Term Thinking

"Good judgment comes from experience, and a lot of that comes from bad judgment."

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<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Don’t settle for the first answer—explore other options.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Ask, “What else could I do here?” to find better choices.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Compare pros and cons of each option before deciding.</li></ul>

Questioning Alternatives

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Question everything you believe to test its truth.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Break down big problems into smaller, easier parts.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Think carefully about every decision you make.</li></ul>

Critical Thinking

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Take a pause before making important decisions.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Focus on long-term benefits, not short-term comfort.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Develop a simple decision-making process you can follow.</li></ul>

Decision-Making

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Be aware of biases that affect your thinking (like only confirming your beliefs).</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Look at decisions from multiple perspectives.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Get input from others to spot hidden biases.</li></ul>

Avoiding Biases

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Don’t wait for perfect answers—clarity is enough.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Make decisions with the best info you have.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Trust yourself and adjust as you learn more.</li></ul>

Clarity Over Certainty

<ul><li class="ql-align-justify">Make small decisions daily to build better judgment.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Track how your decisions work out.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Use mental models consistently to enhance your thinking.</li></ul>

Improving Judgment

<ul><li>Use tools like First Principles to simplify problems.</li><li>Break decisions into smaller, manageable steps.</li><li class="ql-align-justify">Apply these tools to make smarter choices quickly.</li></ul>

Mental Models

"The more you know, the less you need to say."

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The instant New York Times bestseller 'An indispensable guide' James Clear, author of Atomic Habits 'A game-changer' Morgan Housel, author of The Psychology of Money 'A must-read' Mark Manson, author of The Subtle Art of Not Giving a F*ck 'A masterwork' Ryan Holiday, author of The Daily Stoic We all want to see the world clearly. The trouble is, we're never taught how. Join Shane Parrish - 'the former spy who helps Wall Street mavens think smarter' (New York Times) - for a masterclass in the art of clear thinking. Drawing on examples ranging from the evolutionary origins of our 'emotion default' to the secret history of the Challenger disaster, Parrish offers powerful mental models to make sense of any situation. And he reveals a simple, actionable method for smarter decision-making, starting today. Along the way, he shows that the secret to mental clarity lies not in how we approach the most high-stakes moments - but in our tiniest, most everyday decisions. It's a simple idea with startling implications: if you clear your head today, you change your life tomorrow. _ 'Incisive. Practical. Full of vivid examples, and enormously fun to read.' Jim Collins, author of Good to Great 'Shane Parrish doesn't just teach clear thinking - he lives it.' Adam Grant, author of Originals 'If you want results - good ones - that you can achieve confidently again and again, read this book.' Annie Duke, author of Quit

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