Anup Chouhan's Key Ideas from Thinking in Bets
by Annie Duke
Ideas, facts & insights covering these topics:
12 ideas
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1. Life is Like Poker, Not Chess
- Life has luck involved, just like poker.
- Even good decisions can have bad outcomes.
- We need to focus on how we decide, not just the results.
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54 reads
2. Result ≠ Decision Quality
- A bad result doesn't mean you made a bad choice.
- A good result can come from a poor decision (just lucky).
- Judge your thinking, not only the outcome.
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57 reads
3. Embrace Uncertainty
- We rarely know everything when making choices.
- Accept that we might be wrong.
- Use words like "probably" or "I'm 70% sure" to show confidence levels.
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52 reads
4. Think in Bets
- A "bet" means you're choosing based on the chances of being right.
- Ask yourself, "Would I bet money on this belief?"
- This helps you become more honest with yourself.
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47 reads
5. Avoid “Resulting”
- "Resulting" means judging a decision only by its result.
- Don’t say someone was smart just because things worked out.
- Look at the reasoning behind the choice.
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44 reads
6. Form a Truth-Seeking Group
- Talk with people who challenge your ideas kindly.
- Good friends help you see your blind spots.
- Avoid echo chambers where everyone agrees with you.
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43 reads
7. Use “What If” Thinking
- Ask: “What could I have done differently?”
- Think through different paths the decision could have taken.
- Learn from the process, not just the final result.
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44 reads
8. Track Your Decisions
- Write down your decisions and why you made them.
- Later, compare the outcomes to your original thinking.
- This helps you improve over time.
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41 reads
9. Separate Luck from Skill
- You can’t control luck, but you can control your choices.
- Focus on improving your decision-making process.
- Don't beat yourself up over bad luck.
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36 reads
10. Keep a Long-Term View
- One bad result doesn’t define your future.
- Think about how you’ll feel about this in a year.
- Make choices that are good for the long run.
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27 reads
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CURATOR'S NOTE
Why Smart People Think Like Gamblers
“
Curious about different takes? Check out our Thinking in Bets Summary book page to explore multiple unique summaries written by Deepstash users.
Different Perspectives Curated by Others from Thinking in Bets
Curious about different takes? Check out our book page to explore multiple unique summaries written by Deepstash curators:
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